Battle of counter-punchers: MayweatherJr. VS Marquez

After a postponement caused by the alleged unspecified and unverified rib injury of Floyd Mayweather Jr., the match between Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather Jr. Shall take place on September 19. And without further ado, let’s look at each fighter closer and try to analyze how they match up against each other.

Juan Manuel Marquez is the unified WBA, WBO and Ring Magazine lineal lightweight world champion and currently ranked number 2, a hairline close to number 1, in many pundits' pound-for-pound ratings, for good reasons. Juan Manuel is the man who gave the number 1 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world, Manny Pacquiao, his two toughest fights. If styles make fights, Marquez' counter-punching versus Pacquiao's seek-and-destroy style are a match made in boxing heaven. Marquez, after being knocked down thrice in the first round, rallied to salvage a controversial draw, therein 1 judge admitted of committing a judging error in Marquez' favor, and on the second fight, lost by a hairline, one point controversial split decision for being knocked down in the third round. Aside from giving Manny Pacquiao the 2 hardest fights of his life, Juan Manuel have fought and beaten many very good quality oppositions, the likes of Marco Antonio Barrera, Rocky Juarez, Joel
Casamayor and recently, Juan Diaz. Marquez is one brilliant counter-puncher.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. on the other hand was considered the number 1 pound for pound best fighter in the world, winning 6 world titles, and 39 fights without a loss, before he decided to go into a false retirement two years ago. Floyd too has defeated many very good fighters, the likes of Jose Luis Castillo, Diego Coralles, Zab Judah, Carlos Baldomir and Ricky Hatton. Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s style is quite similar to that of Pernell Whitaker. Mayweather Jr. is very elusive, very hard to hit, very fast and very accurate counter-puncher. I have to say, none has ever looked good fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr.

This match-up is as cerebral as it gets, pitting two counter-punchers against each other. The fight would be very tactical for sure, and doubtfully be entertaining. The common notion about pitting two counter-punchers against each other would be this “He who attacks first loses the battle”. So I wouldn’t be surprised if there would be a lot of yawning in the audience when they’re watching this fight.

Juan Manuel Marquez is most effective when he waits for his opponents to come forward to initiate the attack. When a fighter throws a punch, like a jab for example, coming from a defensive position of using both arms held up in front to act like a defensive shield, he needs to abandon his front guard and convert that defending hand and arm into an extended reach and fist, to deliver the punch. In that split second, the attackers' mind would be focused on trying to connect that punch, more than to defend himself. With his guard open and his mind focused on his attack, this leaves the attacker a perfect target for a knowledgeable counter-puncher. A counter-puncher must have a good sense of timing, for he shall initiate his offense while his opponents are in the middle of executing their own offense. And brilliant timing is what Juan Manuel Marquez has. As they say, to beat a speedster, you need good timing. That was why a speedster like Pacquiao had so
much trouble with Marquez. Floyd on the other hand is a speedster himself. But unlike Pacquiao, Mayweather is a counter-puncher too!

Marquez' brilliant timing allows him to weave, slip and evade his opponent's punches by simply dipping his hips, moving his torso, or using his footwork, making his opponents miss. Marquez' opponents would then find themselves over-committing into their offense, leaving them wide open to Marquez' powerful combinations. I don’t see Mayweather committing those kinds of mistake against Juan Manuel Marquez though for the same reason that Mayweather too is a counter-puncher.

Something I've noticed about Marquez' technique is his ability to create angles wherein he can exploit by simply twisting his body to evade a punch, which also positions him to sneak a looping over-hand right that would pass through his opponents' left hand guard, outside his opponents’ field of vision. What usually get you are the punches you couldn’t see coming. And Marquez has a lot of those in his arsenal. And in case his opponent was able to block, parry or evade that looping over-hand right, Marquez usually follows that up with another looping left hook or a sneaky upper cut. I’m not sure if Marquez would be able to employ that technique effectively against Mayweathers’ footwork and shoulder roll technique.

If you are a conventional fighter using both forearms and fist straight up, parallel in front, as a defensive posture, Marquez’ looping over-hand right combined with looping left hook and/or sneaky upper cut will surely penetrate that kind of defense. Because the over-hand rights are coming from above crashing down at your left face, and as you react due to that blow, you won’t even see the follow up looping left hook coming from the open space between your forearm and your shoulder on your right side, and/or the sneaky upper-cut passing between your elbows to the chin. The defensive position of parallel arms and fist placed in front, can guard against jabs and straights but would have difficulty guarding against looping punches. But against the shoulder-roll defense of Mayweather, I can just see Floyd Jr. using his shoulder to block and roll with that over-hand right of Marquez while his left forearm is guarding against an upper-cut at the same time
his right forearm and fist guard against an incoming looping left hook. That’s a riddle Marquez needs to figure out in this fight. How to break the “shoulder-roll defense”. 39 attempts tried to break that defense but none has succeeded. I’m eager to find out what would Coach Nacho come up with against this technique. I would also would wanna know what the Mayweather’s camp has in their sleeves to counter Marquez’ techniques!

Another thing that I’ve noticed with Marquez especially in his last three fights at lightweight, the higher he goes up in weight, the more power comes out of his punches. Marquez’ punches packs some power because he has good fundamentals. He knows how to use proper kinesthetic and leverage, to let the energy coming from his legs travel to his torso and flow towards his arms, punctuated to his punching fist. Unlike Juan Diaz’ volume punches that looks speedy but lacks power because the energy of his punches are just coming from his shoulders. And with this fact, Marquez was able to knock out two very tough opponents who were never been knocked out before, in the persons of Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz. Many people have also observed Marquez’ diminishing speed as he gains weight and power. He got hit more often than usual when he fought Casamayor and Diaz, which could spell trouble for Marquez against Floyd who has very fast hands. But unlike
Marquez’ counter-punching style, Mayweather rarely throws combinations. Floyd’s counter attacks usually consist of fast single or one-two “pot-shot” counter-punches. Juan Manuel on the other hand rarely throws single punch counters, but two, three or even four combination counter-punches.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. most effective offensive technique would be the counter lead right hand that he delivers after evading his opponents’ initial attack. Not so many fighters use the lead right hand as an opening attack, simply because it leaves you wide open for counters. But just like Muhammad Ali, Floyd Mayweather Jr’s speed allows him to throw effective lead right straight without getting countered. Connecting a lead right straight and getting away with it, simply tells your opponent “I’m faster than you! You can’t catch me.” And in this fight, I’m sure a brilliant trainer like Nacho Beristain would have a game plan to watch out for these tactics.

Mayweathers’ most effective defensive tactic on the other hand would be “the clinch”. As his opponent goes forward and tries to deliver combinations at Floyd Jr., he would tie up his opponent to disrupt the rhythm and momentum of his attacker. This would prompt the referee to step in and break the fighters’ apart. This gives Floyd Mayweather Jr. a fresh start to wait for his opponents attacks and deliver his own counter attacks. In this fight, I don’t see Floyd Mayweather Jr. initiating the attacks. He will patiently wait for Marquez’ first move, for him to execute his counter punches. Mayweather’s clinching defense has been criticized by boxing writers as it is not a “fan friendly” style. This is one of the reasons why nobody has ever looked good against Floyd Jr. because the clinching defense frustrate his opponents. It would be interesting how Floyd Mayweather Jr. would catch Marquez into his clinches because Juan Manuel Marquez
doesn’t usually rush forward to execute his offense, but rather Marquez is effective delivering his offense going backwards.

If Marquez sets up his counter-punches by creating angles with his effective body positioning, Mayweather on the other hand, sets up his counter-punches with his fast foot work. Floyd Jr. waits for his opponents to attack, and when they do, Floyd Mayweather Jr. would usually bounce out of range or side steps to either side. And in that position, Mayweather can take a wide open, single punch or a two punches combination. Then when his opponents try to counter his counter punches, Floyd Mayweather Jr. would be again out of range. With these facts, it would be very interesting how their styles would match-up. I can see Marquez inching his way to Mayweather strategizing his attacks. Juan Manuel would use feints to lure Floyd Mayweather Jr. make the first attack so that Marquez could deliver his counters. I could also see Floyd Mayweather Jr. circling around Juan Manuel Marquez, executing his own feints to let Marquez make the first move. In this
counter-puncher versus counter-puncher, “the master of feints will win the tactical battle.”

Floyd Mayweather Jr. does not like to fight on the inside. When he finds himself lured into an inside fighting brawl, he either clinches and allow the referee to give him a fresh position at a distance, or he circles away out of trouble. Floyd Jr. is allergic to punches rained down on him. The tricky part is, how can you trap a fast Floyd Jr. and rain punches on him? The answer to that question is: “You must be faster than him.” Can Marquez develop that kind of speed? Juan Manuel Marquez is comfortable fighting on the inside as well on the outside. Juan Manuel’s torso weaving and hip dipping evasive defense to position for counters are very well suited to fight fire with fire. If Marquez could lure Floyd Jr. to get into this inside fighting brawl, I believe it could work to Marquez’ advantage.

I don’t know how a two years lay-off would affect the timing and accuracy of Floyd Mayweather Jr. Then again, “ring rust” do exist! Muhammad Ali, after a 3 years lay-off, lost to Joe Frasier and admitted to the public that he’s not the same. Ali does not hit as hard anymore and he’s not as fast as he used to. Mike Tyson, after being in prison for three years was never the same as well. Although his power is still there, but is timing was a bit off and his reflexes are a bit slower. As I’ve mentioned previously, timing and accuracy are key components to an effective counter-puncher. Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s may still have his speed and may still have his power, but “ring rust” could mess up his reflex and timing, which may give him trouble against a sharp, brilliant fighter as Juan Manuel Marquez. But if a gym rat like Floyd Mayweather Jr. keeps his composure by staying sharp during his two years lay-off, it could mean big trouble for Juan
Manuel Marquez. A bigger, faster, younger and skillful Floyd Mayweather Jr., with his obvious advantages, can knock-out a smaller, older, lighter and equally skillful Juan Manuel Marquez.

Another important factor to consider is that; it is easier to go up in weight rather than go down. Remember, this match will take place on 144lbs catch weight. Which means it would be four pounds lower than the usual 147lbs. Marquez could bulk up from his usual 130lbs to make a weight closer to 144lbs and gain strength and power, but risk losing speed. On the other hand, the way I look at Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s physique, he seems to have less than 5% body fat during his “off-season” weight of 159lbs. Which means, that Floyd Jr.’s mass consist mostly of lean muscles. Now, to get down from 159lbs to 144lbs, Floyd Mayweather Jr. would need to burn not only fat, but his own muscle weight as well! We all knew what happened when Roy Jones Jr. came down from 200lbs heavyweight to fight again at light heavyweight, effectively burning his own muscle mass, right? The effect was catastrophic! Burning your own muscles to lose weight could diminish strength
and power. I wonder how the weight factor would play out during fight night. By the time both fighters step into that ring, Floyd Mayweather Jr. is expected to weigh more than ten pounds bigger than Juan Manuel Marquez.

The odds are definitely stacked against Marquez in this fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr., as Juan Manuel is coming up two weight divisions higher to fight a bigger, stronger, faster, younger, and unbeaten opponent. The key to victory for Juan Manuel Marquez in this fight is his “warrior’s spirit”. Manny Pacquiao may have put him down four times, but he keeps on getting up and recovered well to put on his best performances. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquez score an upset win via KO after a “come from behind” victory in the later part of this fight, just like what he did against Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz. As I’ve said before, Marquez gains power as he moves up in weight, which gives him a big “punchers’ chance” given his accurate counter-punching skills. I believe the longer this fight progresses, it would favor Mayweather Jr. to win via ugly and boring unanimous decision.

I intend to sip strong coffee when I watch this fight to keep me from falling asleep.

Source: http://www.8countnews.com/news/125/ARTICLE/1911/2009-09-13.html