Prediction: Mayweather vs. Marquez, and the winner is . . .

The moment has arrived. HBO's third episode of 24/7 was one of the best I have seen, featuring the returning Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Mexico's Juan Manuel Marquez. Floyd's unparalleled boxing and defensive abilities are matched by this conviction in which he holds himself as one of the best fighters in the history of the sport.

Swagger vs. National Pride

Marquez, on the other hand, is cut from a different cloth. His humble beginnings in a small family apartment, to his rise as a national representative of the sport - to his religious roots, to the tribute of an entire stadium in a Mexican soccer game, all underscore his willingness to go to through blood, hell, and fury to win this fight.

There might be controversy in this fight. Marquez might use low blow and late hit dirty tactics to infuriate a level-headed master like Floyd - ala Zab Judah. The scorecards could be close, or misaligned with punch counts. In a previous article, Marquez's landed punch stats for his last three fights are materially higher than Floyd's last three fights. (Related Article link, above)

The Yellow, Gobbling Shadow of Pacman

There is one over-arching, undeniable, and looming shadow on September 19th - and that is the yellow, gobbling, open mouth of Pacman. Whether you choose to focus on the matter or not, "Number One vs. Numero Uno" all lead to Manny Pacquiao. The road to ultimate boxing supremacy leads through a raucuous Pacific Storm.

To be sure, and driven by tremendous egos and promotional positioning, there will be controversy after the fight. Fans that believe Marquez won at least one of his fights against Pacquiao will harbor that belief and bring it to their graves. Marquez's improbable - and you can say, truly inspirational - upset of Mayweather - in the unlikely scenario in which that transpires this Saturday evening - makes Pacquiao vs. Marquez III the most anticipated rubber match since Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier III - the immortalized "Thrilla in Manila" that nearly killed both men in the squared circle, for the ferocious determination that led to a mutually-induced savagery; a war that would elevate itself to societal myth and legend for the baby-boomer generation, and generations since.

24/7's job is to sell tickets and PPV buys, not objectively analyze

It is skewed, promotional coverage.

While HBO's 24/7 coverage of Mayweather vs. Marquez has been highly entertaining, fight fans should not base assessments of upcoming bouts on this show. Have a healthy degree of skepticism and ability to recognize motivational drivers from a business standpoint. After all, HBO's and the promoters' agenda is to sell tickets and pay-per-view buys, and the financial and marketing hype distorts the objective facts. As Thomas Jefferson would advice: analyze based on facts, logic, and reason - not on temperament or (fickle) emotions. There is no spin. Mayweather is highly favored to win this fight, he is a bigger and stronger man, and he is forcing a natural lightweight champion to meet him in the welterweight range of 144 lbs. Floyd will step in the ring in the junior middleweight limit of around 155 lbs. while Marquez will be a diminutive 142 pounder on fight night. My friends, while Marquez is the sentimental underdog and inspirer of many, 155 lbs. vs. 142 lbs. is very, very significant.

HBO tried to make us believe that Ricky Hatton would be highly competitive against Manny Pacquiao. Get a timer and show how much they televised Ricky's training, strategy, and sparring - while on the other side, they focused on Freddie Roach and Pac-mom. By directing the show in such a way (i.e., focusing on Ricky), HBO succeeded in helping most people to forget that Hatton's charging style will meet a lethal Pacquiao left that has the power of an angry horse kick - that punch could have knocked out 44 year old Bernard Hopkins into the hospital emergency room. 24/7 is entertainment, but not objective. They want revenue, and their job is to convince potential customers that it will be a great fight - despite what logic and reason dictate - and get people to shell out $50. Don't base your analysis on HBO.

A Mayweather win has the boxing world see endless claims by Floyd's camp that their egoistic client is the true #1 pound for pound king. "Money" will suggest:

1.) That he was #1 when he left, and he is #1 when he returned. He is undefeated, and that no one was able to dislodge him from his throne. And therefore, Manny does not occupy that throne.

2.) That he beat the consensus #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Beating the smaller Marquez, according to Floyd's WWE-esque antics, elevates him to #1 in boxing.

3.) And that Marquez really beat Pacquiao in their encounters, and since Floyd beat Marquez, he is now the one and only king.

Four big factors:

1. Marquez's punch output and punch landed stats - work volume.

2. Floyd's 72" reach vs. Marquez's 67" reach (a big 5" reach advantage for Mayweather).

3. Accuracy of Floyd and heart / guts of Marquez.

4. Cuts.

Source: http://www.examiner.com/x-4514-Houston-Boxing-Examiner~y2009m9d14-Prediction--Mayweather-vs-Marquez-and-the-winner-is---