Five key X-factors hang over Floyd Mayweather as clock ticks on comeback fight

As Floyd Mayweather's comeback bout against Juan Manuel Marquez hits its 30-day countdown, here are the five most important things to watch:

1. Promotional divide
Mayweather's self-promotion skills helped carry the last few years of his career, but now that Mayweather Promotions has shouldered an increased direct financial exposure, his personal obligations take on a larger role than ever.

The first tangible evidence of that will be his appearance Monday night as host of World Wrestling Entertainment's "RAW" TV show, less than four weeks before the Sept. 19 fight.

More such publicity-engendering appearances are expected in the weeks to come, including another HBO "24/7" series.

They have not hampered Mayweather in the past. Remember: He did "Dancing With the Stars" in the weeks leading to his sizzling 2007 knockout of Ricky Hatton.

But he also got booted from that program seven weeks in advance -- not the two weeks he would have faced by reaching the finals -- and immediately expressed relief that the reality fare didn't overlap fight preparation.

Other high-profile fighters flopped under similar promotional duress within the past decade, when the self-promoted fighter came into vogue.

Oscar De La Hoya created Golden Boy Promotions in 2001. Since then, his record is 5-4.

Lennox Lewis, who also fought under his own promotional banner, was involved in the production of "Ocean's Eleven," in a cinematic fight against Wladimir Klitschko, after which he was knocked out and lost the heavyweight title against Hasim Rahman.

Antonio Tarver, after starring in "Rocky Balboa" as Mason "The Line" Dixon, was outclassed and lost his light heavyweight title to a 41-year-old Bernard Hopkins.

Could Mayweather be next?

2. The Pac factor
Mayweather is fighting external forces in addition to the one Marquez presents within the ring, none bigger than Manny Pacquiao.

Pacquiao's November clash with Miguel Cotto already is hailed as the biggest fight of the year.

Bob Arum -- Pacquiao's promoter and Mayweather's ex-promoter -- is certain to use Mayweather-Marquez as a piggybacking opportunity to divert media attention to his own fight.

There already is widespread debate about how Mayweather-Marquez will sell in a tough economy, especially with UFC 103 scheduled the same night.

But how much the Mayweather-Marquez buzz is overridden by the enormous interest in Pacquiao-Cotto could have an even bigger impact on Mayweather's negotiating strength when, and if, he opens talks with Pacquiao for the biggest potential fight in boxing.

3. Undercard overhead
Mayweather agreed to unspecified financial concessions to allow for a beefed-up undercard, against the potential promise of a back-end payoff in pay-per-view percentages.

Mayweather-Marquez is the attraction, but Chris John-Rocky Juarez II holds nearly as much appeal to hardcore fight fans. Add in Zab Judah-Antonio Diaz and another fan-favorite bout between gladiatorial Michael Katsidis and 2004 U.S. Olympian Vincente Escobedo, and you have the deepest pay-per-view card in years.

If that can't outperform a UFC show headlined by a Rich Franklin-Vitor Belfort fight, boxing is in deeper trouble than anyone knew.

4. Mexican Dependence Day
Mayweather-Marquez is on Mexican Independence Day weekend, although the marketing suggests it is anything but independent of North America's most earnest fight fans, with Marquez, Diaz and Juarez all key focal points.

Tecate beer announced this week a $25 rebate plan for purchasers of its product who also buy the fight, which essentially halves the pay-per-view cost.

There also will be a Mayweather-Marquez commemorative Tecate can marketed on the West Coast.

For all of Mayweather's complaints about how Arum pushed him almost exclusively against Hispanic opponents to take advantage of that market, it is telling how strongly he self-markets to the same audience.

5. Training conundrum
Roger Mayweather's legal issues are certain to be a central focus of the early "24/7" episodes, although less likely to play a key role in the actual fight.

His pending felony battery charge, stemming from an incident this month involving a female boxer he once trained, is unlikely to be adjudicated before the fight, and his camp role equally unlikely to be affected.

Source: http://www.mlive.com/mayweather/index.ssf/2009/08/five_key_xfactors_hang_over_fl.html